A non-linear neural network technique for updating of river flow forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
A non-linear Auto-Regressive Exogenous-input model (NARXM) river flow forecasting output-updating procedure is presented. This updating procedure is based on the structure of a multi-layer neural network. The NARXM-neural network updating procedure is tested using the daily discharge forecasts of the soil moisture accounting and routing (SMAR) conceptual model operating on five catchments having different climatic conditions. The performance of the NARXM-neural network updating procedure is compared with that of the linear Auto-Regressive Exogenous-input (ARXM) model updating procedure, the latter being a generalisation of the widely used Auto-Regressive (AR) model forecast error updating procedure. The results of the comparison indicate that the NARXM procedure performs better than the ARXM
منابع مشابه
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DETECTION BY MODEL UPDATING METHOD BASED ON CASCADE FEED-FORWARD NEURAL NETWORK AS AN EFFICIENT APPROXIMATION MECHANISM
Vibration based techniques of structural damage detection using model updating method, are computationally expensive for large-scale structures. In this study, after locating precisely the eventual damage of a structure using modal strain energy based index (MSEBI), To efficiently reduce the computational cost of model updating during the optimization process of damage severity detection, the M...
متن کاملDetermining water quality along the river with using evolutionary artificial neural networks (Case Study, Karoon River , Shahid Abbaspur-Arab Asad reach)
Rivers are important as the main source of supply for drinking, agriculture and industry.However, drinking water quality in terms of qualitative parameters, is the most important variable. Studias and predicting changes in quality parameters along a river, are one of the goals of water resources planners and managers. In this regard, many water quality models in order to maintain better water ...
متن کامل"Technical Report" Performance Comparison of IHACRES Model and Artificial Neural Network to Predict the Flow of Sivand River
The accurate determination of river flow in watersheds without sufficient data is one of the major challenges in hydrology. In this regard, given the diversity of existing hydrological models, selection of an appropriate model requires evaluation of the performance of the hydrological models in each region. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of artificial neural network ...
متن کاملHybrid Models Performance Assessment to Predict Flow of Gamasyab River
Awareness of the level of river flow and its fluctuations at different times is one of the significant factor to achieve sustainable development for water resource issues. Therefore, the present study two hybrid models, Wavelet- Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Interference System (WANFIS) and Wavelet- Artificial Neural Network (WANN) are used for flow prediction of Gamasyab River (Nahavand, Hamedan, Iran...
متن کاملNeural networks and non-parametric methods for improving real- time flood forecasting through conceptual hydrological models
Time-series analysis techniques for improving the real-time flood forecasts issued by a deterministic lumped rainfall-runoff model are presented. Such techniques are applied for forecasting the short-term future rainfall to be used as real-time input in a rainfall-runoff model and for updating the discharge predictions provided by the model. Along with traditional linear stochastic models, both...
متن کامل